Everyone’s a Bear

S&P 500 June 17, 2009 - Weekly Chart

The trading / finance / guru-wannabe blogosphere right now is 99 to 1 certain that we’re on the brink of a major correction. Downwards. Of course. Because anyone who’s a serious blogger on the markets is a perma bear.

So, everybody and their dog too is absolutely convinced that we’ll be – at least – revisiting 880 on the S&P500 which usually means that you’re discounting a visit to 850.

Just about here is where it gets kinda spooky. What’s that old contrarian trading rule again, “You can’t make money going along with the general conception”…

What to do then when the whole community seems to be sure that we are about to fall off a cliff. Well, why not go all in? Be the contrarian you’re longing to be. Be the contrarian that average Joe is already by not knowing better and just following the crowd.

The crowd right now is moving money into the market, and with such a downperiod behind us, my guess is that it’s going to take a little more than some 50 bloggers thinking that we’ll go down to move us in any other way than up.

That doesn’t suggest that we can’t see 880 on the S&P. But that’s small movement stuff that you couldn’t possible hope to catch / time if you are not a very active trader, which I am not.

So let me say that I’m continuing to be long the market. If not for anything else than to satisfy the uber-contrarian within me.